Modeling microbial cross-feeding at intermediate scale portrays community dynamics and species coexistence

Author summary The behavior of microbial communities such as the human microbiome is hard to predict by its species composition alone. Our efforts to engineer microbiomes-for example to improve human health-would benefit from mathematical models that accurately describe how microbes exchange metabolites with each other and how their environment shapes these exchanges. But what is an appropriate level of details for those models? We propose an intermediate level to model metabolic exchanges between microbes. We show that these models can accurately describe population dynamics in three laboratory communities and predicts their stability in response to perturbations such as changes in the nutrients available in the medium that they grow on. Our work suggests that a highly detailed metabolic network model is unnecessary for extracting ecological insights from experimental data and improves mathematical models so that one day we may be able to predict the behavior of real-world communities such as the human microbiome. Social interaction between microbes can be described at many levels of details: from the biochemistry of cell-cell interactions to the ecological dynamics of populations. Choosing an appropriate level to model microbial communities without losing generality remains a challenge. Here we show that modeling cross-feeding interactions at an intermediate level between genome-scale metabolic models of individual species and consumer-resource models of ecosystems is suitable to experimental data. We applied our modeling framework to three published examples of multi-strainEscherichia colicommunities with increasing complexity: uni-, bi-, and multi-directional cross-feeding of either substitutable metabolic byproducts or essential nutrients. The intermediate-scale model accurately fit empirical data and quantified metabolic exchange rates that are hard to measure experimentally, even for a complex community of 14 amino acid auxotrophies. By studying the conditions of species coexistence, the ecological outcomes of cross-feeding interactions, and each community's robustness to perturbations, we extracted new quantitative insights from these three published experimental datasets. Our analysis provides a foundation to quantify cross-feeding interactions from experimental data, and highlights the importance of metabolic exchanges in the dynamics and stability of microbial communities.