Is administration of proton pump inhibitors in functional dyspepsia worth the risk of developing gastric cancer: a Markov model to bridge the gap between scientific evidence and clinical practice.

Objective To formulate a decision analysis model based on recently published data that addresses the dilemma, whether improvement in quality of life rationalises continued proton pump inhibitors (PPI) use despite the risk of gastric cancer (GC) in patients with functional dyspepsia (FD). Design A Markov model consisting of an initial decision regarding treatment with PPI (denoting it by PPI strategy) or any other treatment without PPI (denoting it by placebo strategy) was designed. Data sources Data from prospective cross-sectional studies indicating risk stratification for GC after the use of PPI, combined with a Markov model that comprised the following states: Live, GC stages 1-4, Death. Outcome measures The primary outputs included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life expectancy (LE). The improvement in utility in FD without PPI as compared with PPI use was tested (PPI vs placebo strategies). Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the model and address uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. Setting We considered only patients whose symptoms were relieved with PPIs and thus, had a better quality of life compared with patients who did not receive PPIs. Results The base case model showed that PPIs compared with placebo decreased LE by 58.4 days with a gain of 2.1 QALY. If utility (quality of life of patients with FD using PPI compared with patients with FD without PPI) improved by more than 0.8%, PPI use is considered better than placebo. Older patients benefited less from PPI treatment than did younger patients. Conclusion To bridge the gap between evidence and decision making, we found that even a small improvement in the QALY justified continuing PPI treatment.