Comparison of 2013 and 2009 versions of Caprini risk assessment models for predicting VTE in Chinese cancer patients: a retrospective study

This study aimed to compare the predictive value of 2009 and 2013 version of Caprini risk assessment models (RAM) for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in cancer patients by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. This retrospective study reviewed a total of 1439 VTE and 1439 non-VTE Chinese cancer inpatients. The baseline demographic data of these patients were recorded. 2009 and 2013 versions Caprini RAMs were applied, and cumulative risk scores were obtained by adding the scores of each risk factor. The specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of these two models were analyzed. ROC curve was drawn to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and the Youden index. Significant differences were observed in the risk factors between VTE and non-VTE Group. The specificity and negative predictive value of 2013 version were higher than those of 2009 version (P < 0.05). No significant differences were found in the sensitivity or positive predictive value between 2009 and 2013 versions of the Caprini RAM (P > 0.05). The AUC and Youden index of 2013 Caprini RAM were significantly higher than those of 2009 Caprini RAM (P < 0.001), whereas the Youden index of the 2009 Caprini RAM at critical point 4 was higher than that at critical point 3 (0.362 vs 0.067, P < 0.05). Compared with 2009 version, 2013 version of the Caprini RAM provides a more accurate and efficacious method for the risk assessment of VTE in Chinese cancer patients.