How can ocean warming at the NW Iberian Peninsula affect mussel aquaculture?

Understanding and forecasting future consequences of climate change in mussel aquaculture industry require the assessment of changes in physical parameters which may affect mussel growth. The FLOW module of Delft3D model forced with climatic data was validated and calibrated for the Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula), one of the areas with the highest mussel production in the world. This model was used to perform historical (1999–2018) and future (2080–2099) projections. Temperature and stratification water conditions were compared in order to determine at what extent climate change can affect mussel production. Thermal stress will increase in a non-homogeneous throughout the water column and the comfort level of mussels will be reduced by more than 60% in the upper layers and more than 30% in deep layers in most of the mussel raft polygons. Water column stratification will increase ~ 5–10 cycles h−1 in most of the polygons reducing the vertical exchange of nutrients and oxygen. Hereby changes in water temperature and stratification at the end of the century will not be favorable for mussel growth.