Population dynamics of Rana sierrae at Dusy Basin: influence of non‐native predators, drought, and restoration potential

The Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog (Rana sierrae) was once an abundant and widely distributed amphibian in California's alpine ranges. Rana sierrae is adapted to high-elevation, fishless habitats. Its adaptions are reflected in a unique life cycle that involves a flexible, extended juvenile phase due to the short growing season typical of its alpine habitat. However, today this species is critically endangered, and most populations have been extirpated from their native range. Here, we present an 18-yr-long demographic study of a R. sierrae population in 15 lakes at Dusy Basin in Kings Canyon National Park. We focused on the period leading up to the arrival of the pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and the subsequent local extinction of R. sierrae. We used N-mixture abundance modeling, which accounts for detection probabilities, to quantify factors affecting frog abundance at different life stages. The abundance of subadult and adult frogs was negatively associated with the presence of introduced trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss and O. aquabonita). Frog abundance in all life stages was positively associated with lake surface area. The propensity of lakes drying correlated negatively with abundance of eggs, subadults, and adults in the following year. Moreover, drought years, characterized by longer summers and less winter snowpack, led to higher rates of lakes drying. Finally, our results suggest that the frequency of such droughts in the region has increased since 1937. Increased frequency or severity of droughts is expected to decrease the value of shallow lakes for Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frogs because these habitats are prone to drying. We discuss our results in terms of future restoration strategies, including reintroduction and probiotic treatment, in this changed and changing ecosystem.