Pulse Wave Velocity and Machine Learning to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes in Prediabetic and Diabetic Populations

Few studies have addressed the predictive value of arterial stiffness determined by pulse wave velocity (PWV) in a high-risk population with no prevalent cardiovascular disease and with obesity, hypertension, hyperglycemia, and preserved kidney function. This longitudinal, retrospective study enrolled 88 high-risk patients and had a follow-up time of 12.4 years. We collected clinical and laboratory data, as well as information on arterial stiffness parameters using arterial tonometry and measurements from ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. We considered nonfatal, incident cardiovascular events as the primary outcome. Given the small size of our dataset, we used survival analysis (i.e., Cox proportional hazards model) combined with a machine learning-based algorithm/penalization method to evaluate the data. Our predictive model, calculated with Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), included body mass index, diabetes mellitus, gender (male), and PWV. We recorded 16 nonfatal cardiovascular events (5 myocardial infarctions, 5 episodes of heart failure, and 6 strokes). The adjusted hazard ratio for PWV was 1.199 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.37, p < 0.001). Arterial stiffness was a predictor of cardiovascular disease development, as determined by PWV in a high-risk population. Thus, in obese, hypertensive, hyperglycemic patients with preserved kidney function, PWV can serve as a prognostic factor for major adverse cardiac events.