Disclosing Progress In Cancer Survival With Less Delay

Cancer registration plays a key role in monitoring the burden of cancer. However, cancer registry (CR) data are usually made available with substantial delay to ensure best possible completeness of case ascertainment. Here, we investigate empirically with routinely available data whether such a delay is mandatory for survival analyses or whether data can be used earlier to provide more up-to-date survival estimates. We compared distributions of prognostic factors and period relative survival estimates for three population-based CRs in Germany (Schleswig-Holstein (SH), Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), Saarland (SA)) computed on datasets extracted one (DY+1) to 5 years after the year of diagnosis (DY+5; reference). Analyses were conducted for seven cancer sites and various survival analyses scenarios. The proportion of patients registered in the datasets at a given time varied strongly across registries with 57% (SH), 2% (RP) and 26% (SA) registered in DY+1 and >93% in all registries in DY+3. Five-year survival estimates for the most recent three-year period were comparable to estimates from the reference dataset already in DY+1 (mean absolute deviations = 0.2-0.6% units). Deviations >1% units were only observed for pancreatic and lung cancer in RP and leukemia in SA (all <= 1.5% units). For estimates of 1-year survival based on the most recent 1-year period only, slightly longer delays were required, but reasonable estimates were still obtained after 1-2 years, depending on the CR and cancer site. Thus, progress in cancer survival could be disclosed in a more timely manner than commonly practiced despite delays in completeness of registration.