Association of the prognostic model iSEND with PD-1/L1 monotherapy outcome in non-small-cell lung cancer

Background Accessible biomarkers are needed for immunotherapy in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We previously described a multivariate risk prediction model, the iSEND, which categorises advanced NSCLC patients treated with nivolumab into Good, Intermediate or Poor groups. This model was developed by using only clinical and analytical variables (sex, ECOG-performance status, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR] and post-treatment delta NLR). Methods An international database of 439 patients who received post-platinum PD-1/L1 monotherapies was collected for validation. Performance of the iSEND to different PD-L1 groups was compared by using time-dependent positive predictive value (PPV) for their mortality events. Results Median follow-up was 18.2 months (95% CI: 15.9–19.6). The overall survival of the iSEND Good (HR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.22–0.43, p < 0.0001) was superior to the iSEND Poor. Time-dependent PPV for mortality of iSEND Poor was superior to PD-L1 = 0% group at 12 (75 vs. 53%, p = 0.01) and 18 months (85 vs. 46%, p = 0.03). However, female gender did not independently associate with better outcome in the validation cohort. Conclusion The iSEND model is associated with the outcome of post-platinum PD-1/L1 monotherapy in advanced NSCLC patients. The iSEND Poor demonstrated a superior performance to PD-L1 = 0% in negative prognostication. Prospective investigation and modelling with other significant parameters in a larger cohort are warranted.