Trajectories of physical activity from midlife to old age and associations with subsequent cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

Introduction It is well established that physical activity (PA) protects against mortality and morbidity, but how long-term patterns of PA are associated with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. Methods 3231 men recruited to the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective cohort study, reported usual PA levels at baseline in 1978-1980 (aged 40-59 years) and at 12-year, 16-year and 20-year follow ups. Twenty-year trajectories of PA, spanning from 1978/1980 to 2000, were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. Men were subsequently followed up until 30 June 2016 for mortality through National Health Service central registers and for non-fatal CVD events through primary and secondary care records. Data analyses were conducted in 2019. Results Three PA trajectories were identified: low/decreasing (22.7%), light/stable (51.0%) and moderate/increasing (26.3%). Over a median follow-up of 16.4 years, there were 1735 deaths. Compared with the low/decreasing group, membership of the light/stable (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.94) and moderate/increasing (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.88) groups was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. Similar associations were observed for CVD mortality, major coronary heart disease and all CVD events. Associations were only partially explained by a range of confounders. Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival benefits were largely driven by most recent/current PA. Conclusions A dose-response relationship was observed, with higher levels of PA from midlife to old age associated with additional benefits. However, even fairly modest and sustained PA was protective and may be more achievable for the most inactive.