A model-based patient selection tool to identify who may be at risk of exceeding dose tolerances during pancreatic SBRT.

•Daily anatomical variations led to extra dose to OAR for around 60% of our patients.•An OAR motion model can be used to evaluate dosimetric uncertainties on new patients.•Sensitivity of planned doses to organ motion can be predicted on planning anatomy.•Pancreatic patients can be stratified according to individual organ risk simulations.•Model-based predictions outperform geometric measures predictions on pCT anatomy.