How much will cash forest encroachment in rainforests cost? A case from valuation to payment for ecosystem services in China

•Current conservation for tropical forests neglects the local aspiration to cultivate.•Potential cash forest encroachment may decrease the net value by up to 50%.•Benefits from water and recreation can offset the opportunity costs.•Indiscriminative payment and complex paths hamper the targeted payment.•Context-specific valuation and payment could be replicated adaptively for similar areas in SE Asia.