Predicting Development of Alzheimer's Disease in Patients with Shunted Idiopathic Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus.

Background: Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) patients often develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) related brain pathology. Disease State Index (DSI) is a method to combine data from various sources for differential diagnosis and progression of neurodegenerative disorders. Objective: To apply DSI to predict clinical AD in shunted iNPH-patients in a defined population. Methods: 335 shunted iNPH-patients (median 74 years) were followed until death (n = 185) or 6/2015 (n = 150). DSI model (including symptom profile, onset age of NPH symptoms, atrophy of medial temporal lobe in CT/MRI, cortical brain biopsy finding, and APOE genotype) was applied. Performance of DSI model was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 70 (21%) patients developed clinical AD during median follow-up of 5.3 years. DSI-model predicted clinical AD with moderate effectiveness (AUC= 0.75). Significant factors were cortical biopsy (0.69), clinical symptoms (0.66), and medial temporal lobe atrophy (0.66). Conclusion: We found increased occurrence of clinical AD in previously shunted iNPH patients as compared with general population. DSI supported the prediction of AD. Cortical biopsy during shunt insertion seems indicated for earlier diagnosis of comorbid AD.