Hot Topic-Aware Retweet Prediction with Masked Self-attentive Model

Social media users create millions of microblog entries on various topics each day. Retweet behaviour play a crucial role in spreading topics on social media. Retweet prediction task has received considerable attention in recent years. The majority of existing retweet prediction methods are focus on modeling user preference by utilizing various information, such as user profiles, user post history, user following relationships, etc. Yet, the users exposures towards real-time posting from their followees contribute significantly to making retweet predictions, considering that the users may participate into the hot topics discussed by their followees rather than be limited to their previous interests. To make efficient use of hot topics, we propose a novel masked self-attentive model to perform the retweet prediction task by perceiving the hot topics discussed by the users' followees. We incorporate the posting histories of users with external memory and utilize a hierarchical attention mechanism to construct the users' interests. Hence, our model can be jointly hot-topic aware and user interests aware to make a final prediction. Experimental results on a dataset collected from Twitter demonstrated that the proposed method can achieve better performance than state-of-the-art methods.