Extending Nearly-Linear Models.

ISIPTA(2019)

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摘要
Nearly-Linear Models are a family of neighbourhood models, obtaining lower/upper probabilities from a given probability by a linear affine transformation with barriers. They include a number of known models as special cases, among them the Pari-Mutuel Model, the e-contamination model, the Total Variation Model and the vacuous lower/upper probabilities. We classified Nearly-Linear models, investigating their consistency properties, in previous work. Here we focus on how to extend those Nearly-Linear Models that are coherent or at least avoid sure loss. We derive formulae for their natural extensions, interpret a specific model as a natural extension itself of a certain class of lower probabilities, and supply a risk measurement interpretation for one of the natural extensions we compute.
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关键词
Pari-Mutuel Model, Nearly-Linear Models, natural extension, coherent lower probabilities, risk measures, Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall
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