5-Years Treatment Effect Of Tnf Alpha Inhibitor In Early Axial Spondyloarthritis And Associated Factors: An Inverse Probability Weighting Analysis Of The Desir Cohort

Background Only scarce data is available on the long-term treatment effect in a real-life setting (i.e. effectiveness) of TNFi in early axial SpA forms and its predisposing associated factors; furthermore, unbiased evaluation of treatment effect in non-randomized clinical trials is challenging, and new methods have been developed to overcome prescription bias. Objectives: a) to estimate the probability to initiate a TNFi over 5 years of follow up in real life setting using novel statistical methods to overcome prescription bias; b) to determine the long-term effectiveness of first TNFi and its predictive factors. Methods Observational prospective French cohort (DESIR) with 5 years of follow-up, including 708 TNFi-naive patients early axial spondyloarthritis. Study visits were scheduled every 6 months in the first two years of follow up then yearly up to 5 years. Treatment (TNFi or other) was at the discretion of the treating rheumatologist’s. The probability to initiate a TNFi was estimated by the Kaplan Meier Method, assuming non informative dropouts. Effectiveness of the first TNFi was defined as the probability to reach an ASAS40 response in both groups (TNFi vs. any other treatment) after at least 10months of exposure. To evaluate treatment effect and overcome prescription bias repeatedly occurring over time, we have applied an iterative method based on inverse propensity score (PS) weighting using a marginal structural model, that allows the integration of the repeated weights derived from the propensity score at each visit (i.e. the probability to receive the treatment at each visit). The structural model used for this analysis was a PS-weighted cox regression, to estimate the probability to present an ASAS40 response after at least 10 months of treatment. Factors predicting first TNFi effectiveness, were explored by Cox (univariate and then multivariate) regression models. Results Of the 708 patients included in the analysis, 258 patients initiated a first TNFi during the first five years of follow up. The probability to initiate a TNFi treatment was 41.3% [95%CI 37.2-45.1]. Among the 258 patients who received a first TNFi, 163 (63.2%) were exposed for at least 10 months. On the original data, ASAS40 response was observed in 50/163(30.7%) vs. 58/450(12.9%) patients from the TNFi and usual care groups, respectively. The likelihood of an ASAS40 response was greater in the TNFi exposed group (HR= 3.3[95%CI 2.9-3.8], p Conclusion Our study, applying novel statistical techniques to overcome prescription bias, confirms the 5-year effectiveness of TNF alpha inhibitors (TNFi) in patients with early axial Spondyloarthritis (axSpA), and we confirm that male gender, with HLAB7 positive and the presence of at least one objective sign of inflammation or structural damage are more frequently associated with such effectiveness. Disclosure of Interests Marion Pons: None declared, Sylvie Chevret: None declared, Karine Briot Consultant for: Karine Briot has received consultancy honoraria and conference fees from UCB, Amgen, Lilly and MSD, Maria-Antonietta d’Agostino: None declared, Christian Roux Grant/research support from: Alexion, Amgen, UCB, maxime dougados Grant/research support from: Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, AbbVie, and UCB Pharma, Consultant for: Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, AbbVie, and UCB Pharma, Anna Molto: None declared