Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on small population of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in China

Climate change is anticipated to alter both wildlife distributions and their movement patterns, due to shifts, loss, and fragmentation of habitat, increasing the risk of extinction for many endangered species. Therefore, climate change must be integrated into wildlife conservation strategies. Using the case study of Asian elephants in China, we used the maximum entropy model to assess habitat suitability by incorporating current and future (2050s) bioclimatic and environmental variables. We then delineated climate refugia where suitable habitat overlapped under both scenarios. Then, we use circuit theory model to analyse potential movement by elephants (through measuring current flow), by linking current habitats and future habitats. Our results showed that current suitable habitat covers an area of about 5228.18 km2, of which 45.71% is projected to be lost by 2050 due to climate change, leaving 2836.76 km2. Just 327.2 km2 new suitable habitat was projected in 2050s. Climate refugia covered 2509.56 km2, and were mainly located in Mengyang and Shangyong reserves and their surrounding regions. Moreover, maps connecting suitable habitats under current and 2050s identified different regions delineated as important for the potential movement of elephants, which mainly distributed in regions of climate refugia. We proposed various actions to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on Asian elephant, including protecting suitable habitat within regions where elephant are currently distributed, establishing corridors between areas where elephant are distributed, creating cross-boundary protected areas, and translocating elephants. This approach could be applied to the conservation planning of other wildlife, especially for umbrella species that support high biodiversity.