The pediatric dental workforce in 2016 and beyond.

Background. Childhood caries is a major oral and general health problem, particularly in certain populations. In this study, the authors aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the supply of pediatric dentists. Methods. The authors collected baseline practice information from 2,546 pediatric dentists through an online survey (39.1% response rate) in 2017. The authors used a workforce simulation model by using data from the survey and other sources to produce estimates under several scenarios to anticipate future supply and demand for pediatric dentists. Results. If production of new pediatric dentists and use and delivery of oral health care continue at current rates, the pediatric dentist supply will increase by 4,030 full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists by 2030, whereas demand will increase by 140 FTE dentists by 2030. Supply growth was higher under hypothetical scenarios with an increased number of graduates (4,690 FTEs) and delayed retirement (4,320 FTEs). If children who are underserved experience greater access to care or if pediatric dentists provide a larger portion of services for children, demand could grow by 2,100 FTE dentists or by 10,470 FTE dentists, respectively. Conclusions. The study results suggest that the supply of pediatric dentists is growing more rapidly than is the demand. Growth in demand could increase if pediatric dentists captured a larger share of pediatric dental services or if children who are underserved had oral health care use patterns similar to those of the population with fewer access barriers. Practical Implications. It is important to encourage policy changes to reduce barriers to accessing oral health care, to continue pediatric dentists' participation with Medicaid programs, and to urge early dental services for children.