In Search of Behavioral Opportunities from Misattributions of Luck

How performance is perceived and attributed has important implications for strategizing. Much research in the cognitive and social sciences suggests that people tend to mistake luck for skill in evaluations and ignore how future performances regress to the mean. We argue that these systematic mistakes can be translated into an alternative source of profit: informed strategists can take advantage of others’ misattributions of luck by exploiting the false expectations and mispricing in strategic factor markets. We also discuss the learning and interdependency barriers that protect, and thus predict the attractiveness of, a behavioral opportunity and suggest approaches to help overcome these behavioral barriers.