Impact of Nord Stream 2 and LNG on gas trade and security of supply in the European gas network of 2030

•Novel gas system model simulates impact of Nord Stream 2 and LNG on Europe in 2030.•With Nord Stream 2, gas transit through Poland and Ukraine reduced by 23% and 13%.•Russia loses 40% market share for any gas bypassing Ukraine via Nord Stream 2.•LNG-focused import strategy requires 17% of European pipelines to be bidirectional.•Short-term disruption of LNG increases gas prices in southern Europe by up to 40%.