Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions

•APSIM-Oats provided a robust prediction of oats growth and yield under cool semi-arid climate conditions.•The warming trend under climate change has a negative effect on oats growth and yield.•Optimized sowing time windows enhance yield by better aligning crop requirements with temporal patterns of rainfall and temperature.•Climate risks for oats production are reduced by delaying sowing compared to current practice.