PGI50 - HAPPY TOMORROW BUT GLOOMING ELDERLY? SELF-ESTIMATION OF FUTURE HEALTH IN CROHN’S DISEASE

Although subjective health expectations might influence patients’ current decisions, this area is understudied in Crohn’s disease (CD). We aimed to assess CD patients’ beliefs regarding future health and explore deterministic factors. A cross-sectional survey was performed in four gastroenterology centres among patients with CD. Demography, disease characteristics were recorded. Patients were asked to indicate the health problem levels they expect to have at ages 60, 70, 80 and 90 in each dimension of the descriptive system of the EQ-5D-3L. The age they expect to reach was also asked. EQ-5D-3L index scores were calculated using the UK utility score set. Descriptive statistics were calculated and multivariate linear regression was performed. 206 patients (women 45%; fistulising CD 41%; biological treatment 66%) were involved with mean (SD) age of 34.7 (10.5) and disease duration of 10.5 (6.3) years. Subjective life-expectancy was in average 77.4 (11.9) for women and 74.6 (11.1) for men, which is 3.0 (11.9) years lower and 0.89 years higher than the age- and gender matched statistical life-expectancy. Patients current EQ-5D-3L index score was 0.799 (0.173). The expected status for one year later was 0.851 (SD 0.169), and for ages 60, 70, 80 and 90 were 0.593 (0.405), 0.376 (0.494), 0.095 (0.528) and -0.117 (0.518), respectively. Analysis by subgroups revealed that patients who believed to survive until the questioned age provisioned significantly better health status for each age (p<0.01). Current health status was the strongest predictor of expected future EQ-5D-3L index score. Patients with CD expect health improvement on the short term. However, they predict a sharp deterioration of health with age and expect to have much worse health than their counterparts of the general public. Our results are relevant for reducing information asymmetry in CD care and may influence the methods used in health economic research.