Validation of the New Procedures for Evaluating Parameters of Crustal Earthquakes Caused by Long Faults for Ground‐Motion PredictionValidation of the New Procedures for Evaluating Parameters of Crustal Earthquakes

Two new procedures for evaluating fault parameters of asperity models for predicting strong ground motions from crustal earthquakes have been proposed: one is for long strike-slip faults by Dan et al. (2011), and the other is for long reverse faults by Dan et al. (2015). The procedures are based on important statistical findings that the average dynamic stress drop is constant (3.4 MPa on strike-slip faults with the seismic moment larger than 7: 5 x 10(18) N.m and 2.4 MPa on reverse faults with the seismic moment larger than 2 x 10(19) N.m) and that the dynamic stress drop on the asperities is also constant (12.2 MPa on the strike-slip faults and 18.7 MPa on the reverse faults). To validate the new procedure for long strike-slip faults, we made an asperity model for a 141-km-long strike-slip fault by this procedure, predicted ground motions, and showed that the predicted velocity motions, velocity response spectra, peak ground accelerations (PGAs), and peak ground velocities (PGVs) agreed well with the observed ones in the 1999 M-w 7.6 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake. We also made an asperity model for a 279-km-long reverse fault by the new procedure for long reverse faults and showed that the predicted velocity motions, PGAs, and PGVs agreed with the observed ones in the 2008 M-w 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake.