The doctrinal paradox: ROC analysis in a probabilistic framework.

The doctrinal paradox is analysed from a probabilistic point of view assuming a simple parametric model for the committeeu0027s behaviour. The well known issue-by-issue and case-by-case majority rules are compared in this model, by means of the concepts of false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR) and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) space. We introduce also a new rule that we call path-by-path, which is somehow halfway between the other two. Under our model assumptions, the issue-by-issue rule is shown to be the best of the three according to an optimality criterion based in ROC maps, for all values of the model parameters (committee size and competence of its members), when equal weight is given to FPR an FNR. For unequal weights, the relative goodness of the rules depends on the values of the competence and the weights, in a way which is precisely described. The results are illustrated with some numerical examples.