The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs
Technological Forecasting and Social Change(2019)
摘要
Expert informants can be used as the principal information source in the modeling of socio-techno-economic systems or problems to support planning, foresight and decision-making. Such modeling is theory-driven, grounded in expert judgment and understanding, and can be contrasted with data-driven modeling approaches. Several families of approaches exist to enable expert elicited systems modeling with varying input information requirements and analytical ambitions.
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关键词
Systems modeling,Modeling techniques,Decision support,Cross-impact analysis,Belief networks,Expert elicitation
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