The AXIOM approach for probabilistic and causal modeling with expert elicited inputs

Technological Forecasting and Social Change(2019)

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摘要
Expert informants can be used as the principal information source in the modeling of socio-techno-economic systems or problems to support planning, foresight and decision-making. Such modeling is theory-driven, grounded in expert judgment and understanding, and can be contrasted with data-driven modeling approaches. Several families of approaches exist to enable expert elicited systems modeling with varying input information requirements and analytical ambitions.
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关键词
Systems modeling,Modeling techniques,Decision support,Cross-impact analysis,Belief networks,Expert elicitation
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