Using models of farmer behavior to inform eutrophication policy in the Great Lakes.

To address the management of eutrophication in aquatic systems, the behavioral mechanisms that drive change at the individual level must be considered when designing policy interventions. This analysis identifies the beliefs that are critical to behavioral change, and explores the likelihood that farmers will adopt two management practices believed to be critical to reducing nutrient loading to recommended levels in Lake Erie. We find that there is potential for farmers to adopt key infield practices needed to reduce nutrient inputs. And further, that increased adoption of such practices is possible by increasing the perceived efficacy of the majority of farmers who are motivated to take action. Integrating these findings with physical models of nutrient movement indicates that adoption of these practices in combination with edge of field practices can attain phosphorus reduction targets for the lake. Future research should focus on measuring the effectiveness of education and outreach programs aimed at engaging farmers and promoting adoption of recommended practices. Such programs may only be effective if they are successfully building farmer confidence in their ability to implement the practices (i.e., perceived self efficacy) and increasing farmer's belief in the effectiveness of the practices at reducing nutrient loss and improving local water quality (i.e., perceived response efficacy).