A Vocabulary for Growth: Topic Modeling of Content Popularity Evolution.

In this paper, we present a novel method to predict the long-term popularity of user-generated content (UGC). At first, the method clusters the dynamics of UGC popularity into a vocabulary of growth in popularity (sequence) by using a mixture model. Eventually, the method assigns to each sequence a topic model to describe the dynamics of the sequence in a compact way. We then use this topic model ...