A probabilistic application of oil and gas data for exploration stage geothermal reservoir assessment in the Appalachian Basin

•Geothermal exploration risk can be reduced by targeting sedimentary basins.•Many hydrocarbons reservoirs in the Appalachian Basin are unsuitable for geothermal.•More reservoirs are suitable when using supercritical CO2 instead of water.•Reservoir Productivity Index predicts the productivity of porous media reservoirs.