China And The Middle Income Trap

EAST ASIAN POLICY(2016)

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摘要
Is China falling into the middle-income trap (MIT) with its current economic slowdown? Extrapolating from its 2015 per capita income of US$ 8,300 and benchmarking a developed economy at US$ 16,000, China would become a developed economy within 10 years with a reasonably strong growth of around 6%. China's impressive R&D efforts and industrial upgrading towards intensive manufacturing could help it cross the MIT; however, it may run into a new kind of trap, the low-income developed-economy trap.
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