Prescribed fire and natural recovery produce similar long-term patterns of change in forest structure in the Lake Tahoe basin, California

•Similar long-term forest structure change from prescribed fire and natural recovery.•Small trees and fine fuels are declining in long-recovering, untreated forest.•Promotion of forest restoration goals with a combination of management approaches.•Past land disturbance contributes to current forest condition.•Long-term empirical forest measurements are necessary to refine model assumptions.