Predicting potential rice damage by insect pests using land use data: A 3-year study for area-wide pest management

•Predictive spatial models to forecast hazards may effectively support countermeasures.•A land use-based spatial model was constructed to predict rice damage due to mirid pests.•The area of source habitat was the most relevant factor, whereas the pest abundance was not a significant predictor.•It could be predicted if rice damage is first grade when the spatial arrangement of arable fields is　determined.•Mapping to visualize potential priority areas was performed.