Valuing Genetically Modified Traits in Canola Using Real Options

This study specifies a framework to evaluate an investment strategy combining a market assessment with a valuation method using a stochastic binomial real option model. The market assessment uses multi-criteria analysis to determine which markets should be targeted for commercialization of a genetically modified trait in a target crop. The stochastic binomial real option model is developed to determine whether commercialization is financially viable. The framework was applied to canola being developed using gene technology to increase its drought tolerance. Our results showed that drought-tolerant canola would be more profitable than conventional varieties, but it would only be sufficiently profitable to pursue commercialization in targeted regions or countries.