P3.149 Spatiotemporal dynamics of the hiv epidemic in brazil, 2009 to 2014

Introduction In 2015, the estimated HIV prevalence in Brazil was 0.4%. This figure has been stable in recent years, but it can mask disparities among regions. In this study we present the spatial distribution of the variation in HIV incidence rates(IR) in Brazilian municipalities from 2009–14 and assess the existence of spatial clustering of increase or decrease in these IR. Methods We used the AIDS reporting system(Sinan) and programmatic data on Viral Load(VL) exams and ARVs. The diagnosis date used was the earliest among 1st detectable VL, 1st ARV dispensation or diagnosis date in Sinan. Annual IR were generated by municipality. To smooth the IR, we used 3 year averages and applied the local empirical Bayesian method. To assess IR time trends, we calculated the percent IR variations in the period. For spatial statistical analysis, a simple adjacency matrix was generated, and Global and Local Moran’s I autocorrelation tests were applied. Results The Global Moran’s I for the IR variation was 0.42 (p Conclusion Spatial dependency in HIV IR variations in Brazil was evidenced. The methods used in this study have proved useful in monitoring spatiotemporal trends, pointing out important regional differences. Similar analysis can be performed at state and city levels, contributing to improved diagnoses of local epidemics.