Quasi-reliable estimates of effective sample size

The efficiency of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating the mean of a function of interest might be measured by the cost of generating one independent sample, or equivalently, the total cost divided by the effective sample size, defined in terms of the integrated autocorrelation time. To ensure the reliability of such an estimate, it is suggested that there be an adequate sampling of state space— to the extent that this can be determined from the available samples. A sufficient condition for adequate sampling is derived in terms of the supremum of all possible integrated autocorrelation times, which leads to a more stringent condition for adequate sampling than that simply obtained from integrated autocorrelation times for functions of interest. A method for estimating the supremum of all integrated autocorrelation times, based on approximation in a finite-dimensional subspace, is derived and evaluated empirically.