How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites

Provision of food security in the face of increasing global food demand requires narrowing of the gap between actual farmer's yield and maximum attainable yield. So far, assessments of yield gaps have focused on average yield over 5–10years, but yield gaps can vary substantially between crop seasons. In this study we hypothesized that climate-induced inter-annual yield variability and associated risk is a major barrier for farmers to invest, i.e. increase inputs to narrow the yield gap.