Statistical description of turbulent transport for flux driven toroidal plasmas

A novel methodology to analyze non-Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs) of intermittent turbulent transport in global full-f gyrokinetic simulations is presented. In this work, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied to time series data of intermittent turbulent heat transport to separate noise and oscillatory trends, allowing for the extraction of non-Gaussian features of the PDFs. It was shown that non-Gaussian tails of the PDFs from first principles based gyrokinetic simulations agree with an analytical estimation based on a two fluid model.