Urban Density and the Procyclicality of Divorce
ECONOMICS BULLETIN(2017)
摘要
This study measures the response of marriage to fluctuations in local labor market conditions more precisely than previous studies by using a newly-digitized data set of all divorces and annulments granted in US counties from1970 to 1988. The observations are aggregated to the census-defined Labor Market Areas level, which allows for testing of heterogeneous treatment effects depending on the urban density levels in the LMA. Results show a strong, robust, and pro-cyclical relationship between employment rates and divorce rates. Importantly the disaggregated testing shows that the observed trend is driven by rural regions with many urban areas showing an a-cyclical or counter-cyclical patter. This finding is significant in understanding regional trends and demographic patterns.
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