Density dependence and changes in the carrying capacity of Alaskan seabird populations

Evidence for regulation of animal populations by negative density dependence is ubiquitous across the animal realm, and yet the dynamics of carrying capacity (K) are often overlooked. K acts as a threshold below which population size tends to increase and above which it tends to decrease. Documenting changes in this threshold is particularly important to population viability analysis (PVA). We reconstructed the population sizes of five long-lived seabird species in Alaska, USA, and analyzed their population dynamics from the past four decades: Black-legged (Rissa tridactyla) and Red-legged Kittiwakes (R. brevirostris), Common (Uria aalge) and Thick-billed Murres (U. lomvia) and Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata). We evaluated a set of models that allowed for either density independence or density dependence, with or without a time trend in K. The best approximating models indicated that these seabird populations behaved in a negative density-dependent fashion. K increased significantly for murres, and remained relatively stable for Red-legged Kittiwakes. It decreased significantly (>40%) for Black-legged Kittiwakes and Tufted Puffins, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska, following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Although we have less confidence in the puffin data, our PVA suggests that, in the next 100years, Tufted Puffins may become extirpated from the few colonies that are monitored in the Gulf of Alaska. Negative density dependence can help to prevent population crashes, but time lags and serial correlation in rates of change could suppress the recovery of contracted populations. Therefore, estimating the magnitude of population fluctuations around a changing carrying capacity is essential to managing and conserving declining populations.