Full Covariance Of Cmb And Lensing Reconstruction Power Spectra

CMB and lensing reconstruction power spectra are powerful probes of cosmology. However, they are correlated, since the CMB power spectra are lensed, and the lensing reconstruction is constructed using CMB multipoles. We perform a full analysis of the auto- and cross-covariances, including polarization power spectra and minimum-variance lensing estimators, and compare with simulations of idealized future CMB-S4 observations. Covariances sourced by fluctuations in the unlensed CMB and instrumental noise can largely be removed by using a realization-dependent subtraction of lensing reconstruction noise, leaving a relatively simple covariance model that is dominated by lensing-induced terms and well described by a small number of principal components. The correlations between the CMB and lensing power spectra will be detectable at the level of similar to 5 sigma for a CMB-S4 mission, and neglecting them could underestimate some parameter error bars by several tens of percent. However, we found that the inclusion of external priors or data sets to estimate parameter error bars can make the impact of the correlations almost negligible.