The Square Root Information Increment Ensemble Filter

A new type of ensemble filter is developed, one that stores and updates its state information in an efficient square root information filter form. It addresses two shortcomings of conventional ensemble Kalman filters: the coarse characterization of random forecast model error effects and the overly optimistic approximation of the estimation error statistics. The new filter uses an assumed a priori covariance approximation that is full rank but sparse, possibly with a dense low-rank increment. This matrix can be used to develop a nominal square root information equation for the system state and uncertainty. The measurements are used to develop an additional low-rank square root information equation. New algorithms provide forecasts and analyses of these increments at a computational cost comparable to that of existing ensemble Kalman filters. Model error effects are implicit in the a priori covariance time history, thereby obviating one of the reasons for including an inflation operation. The use of an a priori full-rank covariance allows the analysis operations to improve the state estimate without the need for a localization adjustment. This new filter exhibited worse performance than a typical covariance square root ensemble Kalman filter when operating on the Lorenz-96 problem in a chaotic regime. It excelled on a version of the Lorenz-96 problem where nonlinearities in the forecast model were weak, where the state vector uncertainty lay predominantly in a small subspace, and where the observations were spatially sparse. Such a problem might be representative of ionospheric space weather data assimilation where forcing variability can dominate the state uncertainty and where remote sensing data coverage can be sparse.