Modeling the risk of invasion and spread of Tuta absoluta in Africa

•A new invasive model for the spatio temporal spread of Tuta absoluta.•A new cellular automata model integrating NDVI, temperature, relative humidity and yield of tomato production.•Prediction of potential area at risk of invasion by Tuta absoluta across Africa.•A tool for phytosanitary officers to control invasion of Tuta absoluta.