Subtype distribution and long-term titer fluctuation patterns of serum anti-Epstein–Barr virus antibodies in a non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma population from an endemic area in South China: a cohort study

Background Serum immunoglobulin A antibodies against Epstein–Barr virus (EBV), viral capsid antigen (VCA-IgA) and early antigen (EA-IgA), are used to screen for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in endemic areas. However, their routine use has been questioned because of a lack of specificity. This study aimed to determine the distributions of different subtypes of antibody and to illustrate how the natural variation patterns affect the specificity of screening in non-NPC participants. Methods The distribution of baseline VCA-IgA was analyzed between sexes and across 10-year age groups in 18,286 non-NPC participants using Chi square tests. Fluctuations in the VCA-IgA level were assessed in 1056 non-NPC participants with at least two retests in the first 5-year period (1987–1992) after the initial screening using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results The titers of VCA-IgA increased with age ( P < 0.001). Using a previous serological definition of high NPC risk, nasopharyngeal endoscopy and/or nasopharyngeal biopsy would be recommended in 55.5% of the non-NPC participants with an initial VCA-IgA-positive status and in 20.6% with an initial negative status during the 5-year follow-up. However, seroconversions were common; 85.2% of the participants with a VCA-IgA-positive status at baseline converted to negative, and all VCA-IgA-negative participants changed to positive at least once during the 5-year follow-up. The EA-IgA status had a high seroconversion probability (100%) from positive to negative; however, it had a low probability (19.6%) from negative to positive. Conclusions Age- and sex-specific cutoff titer values for serum anti-EBV antibodies as well as their specific titer fluctuation patterns should be considered when defining high NPC risk criteria for follow-up diagnostics and monitoring.