Building Last Mile Delivery Scenarios: A Case Study of Melbourne

This paper aims to build plausible scenarios to formulate the future of last mile delivery using planning and transport infrastructure attributes as key drivers of last mile bottlenecks. The scenario thinking method is applied to understand and analyse apparent perverse last mile challenges with ‘critical uncertainties’ associated with projection of future patterns. Key stakeholders associated with last mile delivery in an urban setting were identified and their positioning assessed on power and interest. The state and local government with HighPower: LowInterest (HP:LI), and truck associations/drivers LowPower: HighInterest (LP:HI) were identified as key stakeholders with different levels of power and interest. Players such as VicRoads and Traders Associations represent the quadrant of HP:HI who could play a vital role to gain support for more infrastructure investment and technological innovation to help improve the efficiency of city logistics operations. Four plausible urban scenarios were identified using two extracted dimensions: Infrastructure Supply and Intensive Land use. The worst/worst scenario highlighted the area of need for strategic planning to mitigate risk associated with damaged products, congestion, last mile delivery stagnation and ageing infrastructure.