Human-Centric Urban Transit Evaluation and Planning

Public transits, such as buses and subway lines, offer affordable ride-sharing services and reduce the road network traffic, thus have significant impacts in mitigating the urban traffic congestion problem. However, it is non-trivial to evaluate a new transit plan, such as a new bus route or a new subway line, of its future ridership prior to actual deployment, since the travel preferences of passengers along the planned routes may vary. In this paper, we make the first attempt to model passengers' preferences of making various transit choices using a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Moreover, we develop a novel inverse preference learning algorithm to infer the passengers' preferences and predict the future human behavior changes, e.g., ridership, of a new urban transit plan before its deployment. We validate our proposed framework using a unique real-world dataset (from Shenzhen, China) with three subway lines opened during the data time span. With the data collected from both before and after the transit plan deployments, Our evaluation results demonstrated that the proposed framework can predict the ridership with only 19.8% relative error, which is 23%-51% lower than other baseline approaches.