Prediction Model of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 Pneumonia

Background: COVID-19 pneumonia has become a worldwide epidemic. Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is a major cause of mortality. Early recognition the risk of ARDS of COVID-19 patients is vital. Methods: Descriptive study from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and Wuhan Fourth Hospital. 394 consecutive hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection from January 1 to March 15, 2020. Results: We developed a risk prediction model of ARDS for COVID-19 among 394 enrolled patients. The variables included in the model were sex, age, diabetes mellitus, neutrophil and lymphocyte counts, serum urea levels, and pulmonary lesion range. The model performed well in predicting ARDS occurrence with excellent discrimination (C-stat=0.81) and appropriate calibration. The predictive value of our model was better than that of the Lung Injury Prediction Score (LIPS) in the discovery set [AUC: 0.77 (0.71, 0.82) vs 0.68 (0.61, 0.75), P=0.02]. Conclusions: Our prediction model provides clinicians and researchers a simple tool to screen for COVID-19 patients at high risk of ARDS. Potential clinical benefits of using this model deserve assessment.