Estimation of second cancer risk after radiotherapy for rectal cancer: comparison of 3D conformal radiotherapy and volumetric modulated arc therapy using different high dose fractionation schemes

Purpose To investigate second cancer risk (SCR) comparing volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and 3D conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) with different high dose fractionation schemes. Methods VMAT and 3DCRT virtual treatment plans for 25 patients previously treated with radiotherapy for rectal cancer were evaluated retrospectively. Doses prescribed were 25 × 1.8 Gy and 5 × 5 Gy, respectively. SCR was estimated using a carcinogenesis model and epidemiological data for carcinoma and sarcoma induction. SCR was determined by lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Results Mean excess LAR was highest for organs adjacent to the PTV. Total LAR for VMAT and 3DCRT was 2.3–3.0 and 2.0–2.7 %, respectively. For 5 × 5 Gy, LAR was 1.4–1.9 % for VMAT and 1.2–1.6 % for 3DCRT. Organ-specific excess LAR was significantly higher for VMAT, and highest for bladder and colon. Size and shape of the PTV influenced SCR and was highest for age ≤ 40 years. For a patient with an additional lifetime risk of 60 years, LAR was 10 % for 25 × 1.8 Gy and 6 % for 5 × 5 Gy. Conclusions No statistically significant difference was detected in SCR using VMAT or 3DCRT. For bladder and colon, organ-specific excess LAR was statistically lower using 3DCRT, however the difference was small. Compared to epidemiological data, SCR was smaller when using a hypofractionated schedule. SCR was 2 % higher at normal life expectancy. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02572362 . Registered 4 October 2015. Retrospectively registered.