Predictors of recovery from post-traumatic stress disorder after the dongting lake flood in China: a 13–14 year follow-up study

Background Floods are some of the most common and destructive natural disasters in the world, potentially leading to both physical injuries and psychological disorders, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). PTSD can damage functional capacity and interfere with social functioning. However, little is known about recovery from PTSD after floods. This study used 2013–2014 follow-up data on survivors of the 1998 Dongting Lake flood who were diagnosed with PTSD in 2000 to measure the prevalence rate of PTSD at follow-up and identify predictors of recovery from the PTSD diagnosis in 2000. Methods Participants included survivors who had been diagnosed as having PTSD in 2000 after the 1998 Dongting Lake flood. PTSD at follow-up was reassessed using the PTSD Checklist-Civilian version. Information on demographics, trauma-related stressors, post-trauma stressors, social support, and coping style were collected through face-to-face interviews. The association between the independent variables and PTSD at follow-up was analyzed using logistic regression analyses. Results A total of 201 participants with a PTSD diagnosis in 2000 were included in this study. A total of 19.4 % of the flood survivors with PTSD in 2000 continued to suffer from PTSD in 2013–2014. In the multivariable logistic regression model, individuals who had lost relatives (OR = 12.37, 95 % CI = 2.46–62.16), suffered from bodily injury (OR = 5.01, 95 % CI = 1.92–13.08), had a low level of social support (OR = 5.47, 95 % CI = 1.07–27.80), or had a negative coping style (OR = 4.92, 95 % CI = 1.89–12.81) were less likely to recover from PTSD. Conclusions The prevalence rate of PTSD at follow-up indicates that natural disasters such as floods may have a negative influence on survivors’ mental health for an extended period of time. Individuals who have lost relatives, suffered from bodily injury, had a low level of social support, or had a negative coping style were less likely to recover from PTSD. Therefore, effective psychological intervention measures are necessary for facilitating the recovery process from PTSD, especially for individuals with adverse prognostic factors.