Using Manufacturing Design Space Concepts for Stability Risk Assessment—Gabapentin NIPTE/FDA Case Study

A quantitative, model-based risk assessment process was evaluated using Bayesian parameter estimation to determine the posterior distribution of the probability of a model tablet formulation’s (gabapentin) ability to meet end-of-expiry stability criteria-based manufacturing controls. Experimental data was obtained from an FDA-supported, multi-year project that involved researchers at nine universities working collaboratively with industrial and governmental scientists under the leadership of the National Institute for Pharmaceutical Technology and Education (NITPE). The risk assessment process involved the development of a design space manufacturing model and shelf life stability model that shared stability-related critical quality attributes (CQAs). Monte Carlo simulations of the design space and shelf life models that uses model parameter uncertainty to estimate the probability of shelf life failure as a function of manufacturing control. The resultant linked design space and shelf life stability models were tested by comparing model predicted and observed long-term stability data generated under a variety of pilot scale production conditions.