Reply To Sharp Et Al.: Psychological Targeting Produces Robust Effects
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA(2018)
摘要
Sharp et al. (1) suggest that our original findings refute rather than support the effectiveness of psychological targeting (2, 3). We respectfully disagree for the following reasons.Sharp et al. (1) state that “If psychological targeting worked reliably, it should have been 100% effective in all five experiments” and that “by random chance, it would have been effective in 50% of them in two or three of the five experiments.” These arguments misunderstand the principles of statistical inference under which hypothesis tests operate. First, experiments do not require a 100% success rate to generate reliable effects. University degrees produce higher levels of income (4), but that does not mean that 100% of people with a university degree … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: sm4409{at}gsb.columbia.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1
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