A simulation study of effects of host availability on the bite rate of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) and the risk of dengue outbreaks in non-endemic areas.

Aedes albopictus is an important vector of dengue fever and tends to live in specific area, where it may ambush blood host that it encounters. Thus, host contact frequency may affect the bite rate and risk of disease outbreak, although no studies have examined these parameters. The present study used a simple model to clarify the fundamental relationship between host availability, bite rate, and risk of dengue outbreaks in non-endemic areas. A hypothetical isolated mosquito population was divided into "ambush" and "resting" subpopulations, and human hosts were modeled as visiting the mosquito population at constant intervals. A single infectious human who visited the mosquito population only on a single occasion was responsible for mosquito infections and consequently, secondary infections among humans who subsequently visit the area after the incubation period. The results confirmed that the bite rate per host increased with decreasing host availability. The number of secondary infections among hosts exhibited a unimodal relationship with the frequency of host visits, with a maximum value at host visits every 24 h. Furtheimore, when host availability was not very low, the bite rate was a good indicator of the potential risk of dengue outbreaks. Therefore, human-bait-sweep collection data may be useful for monitoring the risk of dengue outbreaks.