Generalising the Pari-Mutuel Model.

UNCERTAINTY MODELLING IN DATA SCIENCE(2019)

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摘要
We introduce two models for imprecise probabilities which generalise the Pari-Mutuel Model while retaining its simple structure. Their consistency properties are investigated, as well as their capability of formalising an assessor's different attitudes. It turns out that one model is always coherent, while the other is (occasionally coherent but) generally only 2-coherent, and may elicit a conflicting attitude towards risk.
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关键词
Imprecise Probabilities, Coherent Lower Probability, High Probability Events, Horizontal Barrier, Weak Consistency Requirements
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